NJ-Sen: our toughest hold?

Could it be that among the Senate races this year, that New Jersey would be more likely to flip than Louisiana?

With Crowley in, Sen. Lautenburg’s lackluster ratings come home to roost.  He could have a tough time agasinst a strong bio candidate.

Some considerations for this race:

1.  How will the Democratic priamry impact the fall election?  The worst result for Democrats is a realtively narrow (<15%) win for Lautenburg.

I can see quite a few crossovers to Crowley.  

2.  Would Rob Andrews be a stronger candidate?

From my distant view,  I would think so.  Now I know that Andrews is not as progressive, but he’s younger and would be better suited to take on Crowley, especially if Crowley is pushed to the right.  But he has to overcome the Democratic establishment and a 30+ deifict to win the primary.

3.  Where does Crowley stand on the issues?  Is he going to run as a social moderate, but fiscal conservative?  

4.  Much will depend on McCain’s strength in NJ.  If he carries the state or comes close, Crowley wins.  He is McCain’s candidate and fit his “Service to America” theme.

In short, if this wasn’t supposed to be a Democratic year, I’d rate this Lean Republican.  So I think it’s a tossup.